Harper needs to tackle the Constitution

Adam Daifallah
Citizen Special

Friday, January 13, 2006

QUEBEC CITY - At the outset of the federal election campaign, few would have predicted that the Conservative party would be winning points on the national-unity issue. But thanks to Stephen Harper's deft handling of the Quebec file, they are doing just that.

Outside Quebec, Mr. Harper has taken dead aim at the perverse notion that only the Liberals can keep Canada together. He's pointed out the Grits' responsibility for the upswing in support for separatism. He offered to step in and debate Gilles Duceppe one-on-one after Paul Martin declined. And, of course, he provoked outrage among Liberals when he claimed the Martin government has abandoned Jean Charest because it prefers separatists in power in Quebec City.

Not only has this helped the Tories improve their standing in English Canada, but they have also gone from being off the radar to contending for a handful seats in Quebec -- something unimaginable even a couple of weeks ago.

Inside Quebec, Mr. Harper has strategically finessed a position between the Bloc and the Liberals. By raising Paul Martin's refusal to address the fiscal imbalance between the federal government and the provinces and promising Quebec a greater voice in international affairs on matters of provincial jurisdiction, the Tories are now seen as a viable third option and are eating away at both Bloc and Liberal support.

The Tory strategy in Quebec has two goals. First, of course, is to win the election. The Tories must win two dozen more seats in Ontario to win, and the road to doing so is through Quebec. Ontario voters like parties with strong pan-national support and want a government that will keep the country united. So as Mr. Harper gains credibility and support in Quebec, his stock in Ontario increases commensurately.

But the Quebec gambit has a second strategic objective, with implications that go far beyond the current campaign. He and his advisers are thinking ahead to the next election and beyond -- to creating a long-term fix to the Quebec question and more favourable prospects for future Conservative victories.

There's a revealing passage in journalist William Johnson's recent biography of Mr. Harper that lends some insight. According to Mr. Johnson, back in 1986, Mr. Harper, then a graduate student at the University of Calgary, discovered a new book that greatly influenced him: Peter Brimelow's The Patriot Game. Mr. Brimelow's book was a national bestseller at the time. It contained a controversial new analysis of Canadian politics and Quebec's place in Confederation. Canada is nothing more than a "geographical expression,'' Mr. Brimelow wrote, containing at least two nations -- French and English -- and Quebec is "emerging as a genuine nation-state.'' He argued that the federal Liberal party has successfully convinced English Canadians that they must to do whatever is necessary to appease Quebec and keep the country united.

The Liberals' exploitation of this idea and Canadians' willingness to accept it, Mr. Brimelow wrote, has kept the Grits in power and stymied any chance of real ideological (read: conservative) politics taking root in Canada. The message of The Patriot Game made so much sense to Mr. Harper that he and a friend went out and bought 10 copies to give to friends. The analysis in The Patriot Game was prophetic: 20 years later it still stands up to scrutiny. Regardless of the results in this election, as long as federal politics revolve around keeping Quebec in the country, the Tories are going to be at a disadvantage. The federalist vs. separatist dichotomy in Quebec continues to paralyse political debate inside and outside the province. As Mr. Harper has pointed out in this campaign, the Bloc and Liberals feed off each other, with one demonizing the other to try to win votes.

A Jan. 23 Conservative victory would likely be with few to no seats in Quebec. Only when the Bloc is displaced will the Tories be able to win more. The separatists will only be marginalized if and when la question nationale is resolved.

Mr. Harper and his entourage know this. If the Tories win a minority, they must begin setting their sights on constitutional renewal down the road. If they win a majority this time, they could do it even sooner. There is a federalist government in power in Quebec City. While Mr. Charest is tremendously unpopular at the moment, that could change. The Quebec premier is on record as saying he would pursue constitutional talks in a second mandate.

Finding a lasting solution to the Quebec question is the only way true conservatism will ever flourish in Canada. The Conservatives are the only party that can make it happen -- because they are the only party that wants to.

Adam Daifallah is co-author, with Tasha Kheiriddin, of Rescuing Canada's Right: Blueprint for a Conservative Revolution.

© The Ottawa Citizen 2006