Jack Layton? Non, merci

Adam Daifallah
National Post

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

QUEBEC CITY - It isn't often that Jack Layton takes a tactical cue from Stephen Harper, but the weekend's NDP convention confirmed that the socialist leader is doing so on at least one file: Quebec.

The Tories held their last policy convention in Montreal to show Quebec how much they cared. They lined the convention stage with Quebec and Canadian flags and continually referred to "Quebecers and Canadians" when speaking in French.

The NDP chose Quebec City for its convention, passed a resolution recognizing Quebec's "national character" and kept referring to "Quebecers and Canadians" in French. They also implicitly rejected the Clarity Act; official party policy now states that it is "not useful or necessary" to formally legalize the "self-determination" process.

Harper's attempt to reach out to francophones worked. He tapped into the old bleu voters: the nationalist, rural and conservative base of the province's electorate. This strategy ate away at support for the Bloc and won 10 seats. Presumably, the NDP could do the same but with left-wing nationalists, of whom there are plenty.

Despite having had a number of high-profile Quebecers in their ranks over the years, such as Frank Scott and Robert Cliche, the party has never elected an MP in a general election, winning a seat only once, in an obscure 1990 by-election. Layton marginally improved the party's fortunes in the last election but didn't come close to winning any ridings.

The main reason is that the NDP is still seen by francophone voters as a centralizing party. That kind of talk is anathema to Quebec nationalists, who want to see more and more power in Quebec City.

Layton, himself a native of the small Quebec town of Hudson, knows this. So he tried to dispel the idea of the NDP-as-centralizers on the weekend by passing the Sherbrooke Declaration, a policy document that calls for asymmetrical federalism. It's a perfect compromise: If the NDP ever wins an election, it can increase the size of government in Ottawa as much as it
likes, because Quebec will have the ability to take the money, opt out and do whatever it wants with it.

Sounds reasonable. But can it work, especially given that the similar approach used by the Conservatives?

Not likely, and for three reasons.

One, the NDP and the BQ are virtually identical ideologically. For left-wing nationalists, what reason is there to switch their vote? From the trade union movement to the academy, the socialist left and the separatist movement in Quebec march together in lockstep. The elites of these movements would never consider supporting a federalist party of any kind.

Two, Quebecers almost always vote for a federal party led by a Quebecer. The Bloc leader will always be headed by a francophone, which will always give francophone voters that ballot option.

Three, the NDP doesn't have a high-profile Quebec lieutenant. Though Jack Layton's Quebec advisor, Pierre Ducasse, has done a good job making modest gains, he isn't the star the party needs to really make inroads. The presence at the conference of a former minister in Jean Charest's Cabinet, Thomas Mulcair, generated rumours that he may run federally, but Mulcair
didn't seem interested.

There are other problems, too. A high-profile Quebec NDP activist who ran the party's Quebec campaign in the last election resigned on the eve of the convention with a stinging op-ed in Le Devoir, accusing Mr. Layton of surrounding himself with an anglophone clique and ignoring grassroots members. And it was somewhat odd that the two highest-profile speakers a
convention designed to impress Quebecers -- Stephen Lewis and Shirley Douglas -- spoke not a word of French in their remarks.

Depending on what happens with the National Question in Quebec (i.e., if the constitutional question is solved), the NDP may be able to gain a toehold over the longer term. Quebecers like having representation in the government. But given some of the policy proposals passed on the weekend, that prospect seems quite far off.

Adam Daifallah is a former National Post editorial board member and is co-author of Rescuing Canada's Right: Blueprint for a Conservative Revolution.

C National Post 2006